Canada

How Escalating Tariffs and Canadian Mill Closures Are Reshaping U.S. Lumber Supply The U.S. homebuilding industry is facing a lumber supply disruption that has been building quietly for years — and is now arriving all at once. Canadian softwood lumber, which has historically supplied roughly 25–30% of U.S. demand, is being squeezed out of the market by a combination of sharply escalating tariff rates, weakening mill economics north of the border, and a structural inelasticity in the lumber supply chain that makes rapid recovery nearly impossible. This is not a temporary fluctuation. What is unfolding in 2025 represents a structural shift in where American builders will source framing lumber — and at what price — for years to come. The Tariff Escalation: A Timeline Canadian SPF (spruce-pine-fir) lumber has been subject to U.S. countervailing and anti-dumping duties under the Softwood Lumber Agreement framework for decades. But the rate increases seen in 2025 are unprecedented in their pace and scale: 2025 Jan – July duty rate 14% Aug – Sept duty rate 35% Oct. – going forward 45% The cost math is stark. A Canadian mill selling lumber at $425 per thousand board feet FOB faces an effective U.S. landed cost