lumber

We are at a significant inflection point in the supply of Canadian SPF lumber to the US because of several factors. The shipments to the US are tallied up at the end of every month, as the Canadian Government must keep a precise tally for the possibility of negotiated refunds that previously happened in the last lumber settlement. The CDN lumber shipments have been averaging about 10% less per month (-100 million board feet) in 2025 compared to 2024. This is roughly in line with the demand drop in 2025. 2025 Jan – July duty rate 14% Aug – Sept duty rate 35% Oct. – going forward 45% In August and September, the effect of the significant rate increase was immediate. Shipments of CDN lumber dropped ~ 30%, the lowest since 2012. With the extra 10% added for October going forward, it is reasonable to expect that this is the new normal. Mills are being shut down in Canada, as it is economically unsustainable to continue producing at these levels, as the numbers below show. USA Cost RL Print (FOB mill) 0% Duty $425 $425 36.5% (WFG) $425 $580 44.5% (IFP & All Others) $425 $614 57.6% (CFP) $425 $670